Author Profile
Warnock, Francis E.
Fragilities and Growth Prospects in the Global Economy
Walsh, Kieran J. Warnock, Francis E.
GEM-0177 | Published May 13, 2021 | 24 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note discusses identifying the potential future fragile and high-growth economies. Read More
South Africa: The Search for Balanced and Sustainable Economic Growth
GEM-0179 | Published May 13, 2021 | 27 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case follows Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), and his efforts to keep inflation between 3% and 6% and, if possible, close to the midpoint of that range (i.e., ... Read More
Eurozone at 21: A Monetary Union Without Growth?
GEM-0178 | Published May 13, 2021 | 24 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case addresses the troubles facing the eurozone in early 2021. Was the area doomed to low (or no) growth? Had the eurozone’s high-profile financial crises in Greece, Ireland, and Cyprus given way... Read More
Doing Business: A Managerial Perspective
Warnock, Frank Begley, J. Asher
GEM-0176 | Published February 12, 2021 | 14 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
A government’s impact on the economy is not limited to taxes, spending, and monetary policy. As any manager can attest, regulations dramatically impact the way managers think about production. An effe... Read More
Exchange Rate Shocks in the United Kingdom and Switzerland
Warnock, Frank Walsh, Kieran J.
GEM-0172 | Published January 06, 2021 | 15 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case follows as the protagonist sets out to refresh his knowledge of large changes in exchange rates by analyzing two specific episodes: George Soros against the Bank of England (BOE) in 1992 and... Read More
A User’s Guide to International Capital Flows
GEM-0171 | Published January 23, 2019 | 10 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note provides a description of international flows and positions data, a way to identify extreme capital flow episodes (such as surges and stops), and a straightforward technique to predict wheth... Read More
Powell's Perilous Situation
GEM-0156 | Published March 05, 2018 | 28 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In February 2018, Jay Powell replaced Janet Yellen as chair of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). Powell, a board member at the Fed since May 2012, knew that his job was to no... Read More
A User’s Guide to BPM6-Based BOP and IIP Accounts
GEM-0154 | Published February 19, 2018 | 9 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents a short description of BPM6-based balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It works through examples using data for the United States and Mexico w... Read More
Background Note on the Philippines and Financial Inclusion
Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock, Francis E.
GEM-0149 | Published January 31, 2018 | 19 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note provides context regarding financial inclusion in the Philippines. It discusses the nature of poverty in the country; provides details on the financial system, especially the financial organ... Read More
Lifting the Poor: A Microfinance NGO Approach in the Philippines
Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock, Francis E.
GEM-0148 | Published January 31, 2018 | 12 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
UPLiFT, a microfinance NGO in the Philippines that provided microfinance and social services for the urban poor, was deciding whether to try to attain fast growth (tripling its clients in just a few y... Read More
Fix or Float
F-1746 | Published January 05, 2016 | 2 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
A fundamental policy decision every government must make is whether, and to what extent, to manage the exchange rate. This note discusses some of the basic costs and benefits of fixed and floating exc... Read More
Open-Economy National Income Accounting and the IS/LM Model
Warnock, Francis E. Murphy, Daniel
GEM-0128 | Published December 17, 2015 | 14 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
When we introduce macroeconomic models, we assume that goods and services are exchanged within a single country but not across countries. This assumption is useful for understanding some of the primar... Read More
Global Asset Allocation: Investing in a Time of Debt, Deficits, and Quantitative Easing
Warnock, Francis E. Wurster, Liz
F-1738 | Published November 03, 2015 | 18 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Built into a pension fund's calculations was a 7% expected return, but in this world of debt, deficits, and quantitative easing (and negative interest rates!), could such a return be counted on? Or wa... Read More
BPI Globe BanKO and Inclusive Banking in the Philippines
Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock, Francis E.
GEM-0137 | Published October 30, 2015 | 19 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In early 2014, John Rubio became CEO of BPI Globe BanKO, the three-year-old mobile-based savings bank that was far from accomplishing its mission to bring banking to the majority of Filipinos who did ... Read More
Inflation Targeting in South Africa
Warnock, Francis E. Hungwe, Archie Drake, Justin Debrah, Mitch
BP-0507 | Published August 09, 2015 | 22 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the latest statistics, was c... Read More
Janet Yellen: Navigating Uncharted Waters
GEM-0134 | Published July 15, 2015 | 27 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In January 2016, Janet Yellen, finishing her second year as chair of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve, was navigating uncharted waters along a number of dimensions. She had inherited... Read More
A User's Guide to the BOP and IIP: The Transition from BPM5 to BPM6
GEM-0135 | Published July 15, 2015 | 11 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
Balance of payments (BOP) accounting conventions, never straightforward, have been complicated recently by the introduction of new standards. This note presents a short description of BOP and internat... Read More
Eurozone at 15: A Monetary Union Without Growth?
GEM-0136 | Published July 15, 2015 | 22 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In 2015, the eurozone had been in and out of recession for seven years and had slipped into deflation. This case presents a brief history of the eurozone and allows students to consider the growth pro... Read More
Prospective Capital Flows and Currency Movements: Euro versus Canadian Dollar
Warnock, Francis E. Fand, Jeremy
GEM-0124 | Published July 30, 2014 | 15 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated in early 2017, this case asks students to assess the likely movement of the euro against the Canadian dollar. Students must sort through mounds of evidence on FX markets, prospective mon... Read More
Yellen, Guidance, and the Exit Strategy
GEM-0121 | Published June 09, 2014 | 31 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Five years into the tepid recovery following the global financial crisis, the Fed was "tapering" its quantitative easing policy. When should it take another step toward normalizing U.S. monetary polic... Read More
Draghi's Commitment
GEM-0113 | Published August 08, 2013 | 26 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated through end-2015, this case examines the eurozone from the perspective of core and periphery long-term rates. By 2010, the "Great Convergence" in eurozone long-term rates during the late... Read More
Bernanke's Dilemma
GEM-0111 | Published February 22, 2013 | 29 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
At what point in the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis should the Fed take a major step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy by greatly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds? Feder... Read More
Currency Crisis in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong
GEM-0108 | Published August 05, 2011 | 19 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case reviews different varieties of currency crises and two in particular: United Kingdom in 1992 and Hong Kong in 1998. These were two very different types of crises, and understanding them coul... Read More
Global Asset Allocation: All That Glitters?
F-1646 | Published March 14, 2011 | 19 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated through mid-2015, this case examines the gold market. To decide whether to initiate a position in gold, the protagonist must assess its features as a strategic component in any portfolio... Read More
Global Asset Allocation: Crude Calculations
Warnock, Francis E. Hergenroeder, Leo
F-1647 | Published March 14, 2011 | 22 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated through end-2017, this case examines the oil market. The protagonist's task was to decide whether her pension fund should allocate some funds to oil, and if so, how much. The decision re... Read More
Prospective Capital Flows and Capital Movements: U.S. Dollar versus Euro
BP-0545 | Published November 27, 2009 | 23 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
After experiencing long, multiyear surges and slides in past decades, by summer 2013, the dollar had been range-bound against the euro. In this case, by assessing potential capital flows, students con... Read More
Greenspan's Conundrum and Bernanke's Nightmare
BP-0544 | Published November 25, 2009 | 22 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
At what point in the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis should the Fed take a major step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy by greatly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds? Feder... Read More
Geithner and Bernanke Amid the Global Financial Crisis
BP-0540 | Published November 10, 2009 | 28 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In mid-February 2009, amid the global financial crisis, the news was grim. The U.S. economy had been in recession since December 2007. If the downturn lasted into early spring, it would become America... Read More
Global Asset Allocation: Whither the U.S. Dollar?
Warnock, Francis E. Chandler, Marc
F-1591 | Published June 16, 2009 | 28 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated through end-2016, this case is an in-depth study of long-run issues facing the U.S. dollar. Couched in terms of a pension fund manager having to make an international asset allocation de... Read More
Whither the U.S. Economy?
Warnock, Francis E. Rodriguez, Peter L.
BP-0542 | Published May 14, 2009 | 24 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
The nine months leading up to April 2009 were among the most difficult and uncertain in U.S. economic history. A series of destabilizing events had led to substantial uncertainty and panic throughout ... Read More
Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008
Warnock, Francis E. Chandler, Marc
BP-0526 | Published August 18, 2008 | 11 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
The person responsible for global allocation for a large pension fund had been asked by the board of directors in April 2008 for an assessment on whether she thinks the dollar would appreciate or depr... Read More
A Technical Note on the Open Economy IS/LM Model
BP-0528 | Published August 14, 2008 Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This technical note introduces the basic structure of what we call the Three-Paned Model. The model is essentially just an "opening up" of the closed-economy IS/LM Model, with the main pane being the ... Read More
Vietnam: A New Tiger Earns its Stripes
Rodriguez, Peter L. Warnock, Francis E.
G-0618 | Published July 30, 2008 | 10 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In January 2008, Vietnam faced an economic challenge as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 75 basis points. What would it take to keep the financial markets from faltering? What would it take to ma... Read More
A User’s Guide to BPM5-Based BOP and IIP Accounts
BP-0523 | Published May 20, 2008 | 8 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents a short description of BPM5-based balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) presentations. It refers to data for South Africa, but given that there are w... Read More
FX Strategies in 2006: U.S. Dollar versus Yen
BP-0505 | Published August 31, 2007 | 20 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Riding the early morning Metro North train from Grand Central to Greenwich on April Fool's Day 2006, Luke Anthony briefly pondered the revitalization of some of the once grand Harlem neighborhoods. Bu... Read More
FX Strategies in 2005: U.S. Dollar versus Euro
BP-0506 | Published August 31, 2007 | 19 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Riding the early morning Metro North train from Grand Central to Greenwich in late December 2004, the euro dominated Luke Anthony's thoughts. After bottoming out at about 0.85 $/?, in 2000 and 2001, t... Read More
Inflation Targeting
Warnock, Francis E. Drake, Justin
BP-0495 | Published February 22, 2007 | 10 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
Since 1990, 21 countries have shifted to a monetary policy of inflation targeting. This technical note defines inflation targeting; discusses how it came about; and analyzes implementation issues and ... Read More
Exchange Rate Models
BP-0496 | Published March 27, 2006 | 15 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This technical note describes parity conditions (PPP, UIP, and CIP) and develops a model of exchange rate determination. Read More
The Determinants of Interest Rates
BP-0489 | Published March 20, 2006 | 14 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This technical note covers real and nominal interest rates, risk premia, an IS/LM model as a driver of general movements in (real) interest rates, a supply-and-demand model for bonds, and the yield cu... Read More
Yield Curve Basics
BP-0491 | Published March 15, 2006 | 6 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This technical note discusses risk and term premiums, prominent theories of the yield curve, and how to construct a yield curve. Read More
Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What?
Warnock, Francis E. Debaere, Peter
GEM-0107 | Published | 27 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates ov... Read More