Business Case Studies & Business Publications

Predicting the Next High-Growth Economie...

Warnock, Frank, Wa...

Technical Note

Predicting the Next High-Growth Economies

Warnock, Frank; Walsh, Kieran J.

GEM-0207 | Published January 30, 2024 | 14 pages Technical Note

Collection: Darden School of Business

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In 2001, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) were predicted to grow faster than many others; this prediction turned out to be true. In this technical note, the challenge is to identify the new BRICs in 2023. Students will investigate the following questions: What are the economics behind BRICs? How do investors and managers identify the next BRIC countries (i.e., the next high-growth economies)? Could the economic frameworks underlying BRICs analysis provide some clarity after the fog of the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Europe? This note includes a short explanation of the Solow growth model, an exploration of growth factors not considered in that model, and data for emerging-market economies in 2000. Finally, it offers a range of perspectives on growth factors and suggests an updated analysis of growth prospects and possible new BRICs in 2023. At the Darden School of Business, this note is taught in the first-year core GEM course and used in the Global Financial Markets course.