Analyzing Uncertainty: Probability Distr...
Carraway, Robert L...
Analyzing Uncertainty: Probability Distributions and Simulation
QA-0660 | Published August 31, 2005 | 14 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
Product Details
This note introduces simulation as a tool to analyze uncertainty in business decisions. It first observes the limitations of single point or simple range estimates of key uncertainties, thereby motivating the need to create a risk profile for any alternative that characterizes the full range of possible outcomes and their relative likelihoods. A simple example involving both a discrete and a continuous (triangle) distribution is used. The note is simulation software independent, although output from Crystal Ball is displayed.
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